A new report published in The Lancet forecasts that more than half of the world's adult population will be overweight or obese by 2050. The analysis, conducted by the Global Burden of Disease Study BMI Collaborators, also predicts that one-third of children and adolescents will be affected by obesity. This alarming trend poses significant health and economic challenges globally.
Currently, over half of the world's overweight adults reside in eight countries: China, India, the United States, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Egypt. The report highlights that without urgent policy reform and action, the prevalence of obesity will continue to rise, leading to increased rates of premature disease and death.
According to the study, the number of adults with obesity has more than doubled since 1990. By 2050, the report estimates that 3.8 billion adults will be living with overweight or obesity, with the largest increases expected in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The study also predicts a 121% rise in obesity among young people globally, with the total number of children and adolescents with obesity reaching 360 million by 2050.
Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) emphasized the need for immediate intervention, stating, "The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure." The study urges governments to implement comprehensive, transdisciplinary interventions tailored to each country's unique socio-demographic and economic situation.
The report calls for five-year action plans from 2025 to 2030 to curb the rise in obesity and help inform new goals and targets for the post-2030 Sustainable Development Goal era. Dr. Jessica Kerr from Murdoch Children’s Research Institute noted, "If we act now, preventing a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents is still possible."
The authors stress the importance of transforming diets within sustainable global food systems and supporting strategies that improve nutrition, physical activity, and living environments. They also highlight the need for stronger political commitment to address the obesity epidemic effectively.